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Anthropic maps three AI futures for 2030; the most extreme could upend the economy
AI is evolving faster than most people, even those building it, could even fathom, and its impact on the workforce and the economy is, at this point, really anyone’s guess.
Researchers from The Anthropic Institute are offering a few possibilities: They have built a nuanced framework looking at how AI might impact jobs, unemployment, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth between now and 2030.
They posit three potential scenarios for an AI-augmented future: “modest,” “substantial,” and “extreme,” and have created an interactive tool where users can explore how productive, or disruptive, AI will become in the workplace, based on their predictions of how they will work in 2030.
“Which of these worlds we are heading toward may become clearer within a year or two, and preparing for potential disruption seems to us the prudent course,” the researchers noted.
The goal of their work is to inform debate as AI becomes more powerful and capable. “AI is likely to reshape the US and global economies in profound ways in the coming decade, but how, and by how much, is extraordinarily uncertain,” they wrote.
How different scenarios could play outIf you add up every single task performed by people, machines, and software, the US has created a staggering $30 trillion in value over just the last year, the Anthropic researchers estimated. Their model and the corresponding tool are a way to explore how AI impacts tasks that contribute to the economy, the tasks it augments and creates, impacts on productivity, and speed of adoption.
“The answers to these questions have direct effects on GDP, the labor market, and the share of the pie taken home by workers,” they wrote.
Under their definition of “modest” change, AI will add less than half a point to GDP by 2030, meaning it will increase the growth rate of the national economy by just 0.5%, and will raise unemployment by just a tenth of a point, a minor shift. In this future, it’s difficult to see AI’s impact in macroeconomic data; change is steady but gradual, similar to that of the internet. “It drives real economic gains, but they’re within the historical norm for new technologies,” the researchers noted.
In the “substantial” scenario, AI will be capable of doing half of all knowledge work by 2030, the majority of it autonomously. Still, it wouldn’t be adopted for all work; in fact, most knowledge work tasks would still be completed without AI. Correspondingly, the economy would grow at twice its normal rate, but even as some non-knowledge workers see gains, wages for knowledge workers wouldn’t rise.
In this case, “AI makes a bigger impact than the internet, or the railroad,” the researchers wrote. Reallocation could be costly, but it is in line with what the US labor market has historically absorbed.
In the “extreme” scenario, of course, AI would be more productive than humans on the majority of knowledge work tasks, would do all of them autonomously, and subsequently would create no new knowledge tasks for humans.
The technology would “drive a completely transformed, unprecedented economy” arising from recursively self-improving AI. GDP growth would rise to 15% per year, but nearly one in five cognitive workers would be unemployed, and their relative wage would fall “immensely.”
The conundrum is that resources to compensate unemployed or under-paid workers will exist, but it’s unclear whether they would be fairly allocated. Mechanisms by which people can benefit from a much richer economy (retraining, income support, or universal basic income, for example) would become a question of economic policy.
“Whether and how those resources reach the people who bear the cost is not something growth delivers by itself,” the researchers wrote.
What users thinkAs well as developing the framework, the Anthropic researchers conducted a survey among roughly 11,000 Americans, asking them to predict AI use, productivity gains, automation versus augmentation, and displaced work.
They found that, in the main, public expectations land around the “substantial” scenario. That is, GDP would be 10% higher by 2030 than it would be without AI, and the overall unemployment rate would rise to around 5%.
Roughly 10% of respondents, on the other hand, had views in line with the “extreme” scenario.
Anyone can generate their own forecast using the researchers’ interactive tool, answering questions like: “Out of every 100 instances of a task AI can do in 2030, how many will AI actually be doing?”, “How many will be fully automated?”, or “How much more gets done in an hour in 2030, compared with doing the tasks without AI?” The tool then responds, mapping their predictions to one of the three scenarios.
“Ultimately, what the economy looks like in 2030 depends on many factors, like what AI can do, and how companies and workers choose to adopt it,” the researchers wrote. “It also depends on how the financial benefit of this technology is shared.”
The between-the-lines realitySanchit Vir Gogia, chief analyst at Greyhound Research, emphasized that the Anthropic research “maps the conditions under which very different futures appear, it does not schedule destiny.”
He sees the distribution result, rather than the unemployment result, as the serious finding. In the extreme case, GDP is 32.4% above the no AI path, and the cognitive wage bill is 31% below it. Labor’s share of income falls from 60% to 45.2%, and capital income rises 81.4 %. That means a full 15% of GDP is captured as ROI rather than being paid out in labor costs.
In other words, he pointed out: “A richer economy is not automatically a fairer one.” Capability, diffusion, productivity, automation, and occupational friction all have to arrive together.
“AI will touch a large and rising share of knowledge work and will execute a much smaller share under independent authority,” he said. There is no single honest adoption percentage, because worker use, company use, technical exposure, and executed task instances are four different measurements.
Lessons from the researchEnterprises can take important lessons from the research as they deploy AI and consider its impact on their systems, workflows, and workforce, Gogia said.
“For enterprises, the binding variable is permission to delegate,” he noted. “A model that can draft a payment instruction is not thereby permitted to move money.”
His firm identifies five recurring concerns that come up in enterprise conversations: Durable returns after the full cost of deployment, control over authority being granted, augmentation quietly becoming substitution, erosion of professional formation, and fairness of how gains and risks land.
Some of those changes are progressing faster than the governance around them, he observed. Once a system can inspect customer data, change configurations, or act on workforce records, autonomy has stopped being a feature and has instead become an allocation of institutional authority.
“And the tasks easiest to automate are frequently the tasks through which judgement is learned,” he noted.
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Layoff remorse: Gartner says at least one in three positions eliminated by AI will be restored by 2029–at a higher cost
Gartner on Wednesday said that it expects 30% of the positions eliminated by AI-related layoffs to be refilled by 2029, suggesting that the initial terminations were ill-advised and excessive.
“When business and IT executives look back on the early AI era, they will realize their greatest mistake was believing that work automation was the point, when workforce amplification was the opportunity,” said Tori Paulman, VP analyst at Gartner. “The competitive advantage will go to the CIOs and business executives who build an AI-shaped organization where AI value compounds by reshaping roles and allowing workflows to cross traditional boundaries, increasing velocity and reducing friction.”
The Gartner report noted that it is finding that the cuts “deplete talent pipelines and erode institutional knowledge.” Beyond the immediate workforce disruptions associated with any mass layoff, companies will also face steep increases in costs for recruitment, training, and onboarding.
It also predicted that, by 2027, “75% of organizations that prioritize capturing AI productivity gains as cost savings will be eclipsed by competitors that aggressively reinvest those gains into innovation, modernization and upskilling.”
In an interview with Computerworld, Paulman said that the 30% figure represents the average impact on organizations of all sizes; they estimate that the layoff boomerang for enterprises would be even higher, roughly 40%.
Paulman said that Gartner’s research found a lot of what they called “AI washing” by executives who want/need to do layoffs for purely budgetary reasons, and will falsely blame AI for the reductions because it makes them look better.
“More than 50% of our enterprise clients have been given a number [by their bosses],” Paulman said, and have been told by senior management to find that percentage of savings from AI.
But despite widespread evidence of problems due to AI-related layoffs, such job cuts are still increasing.
Layoffs were ‘excessive’Other analysts and consultants agreed with the Gartner suggestion that many of these job losses attributed to AI are going to be walked back, but questioned the specific statistic. Some also noted that 70% of the AI-attributed layoffs may remain in force, which would suggest that the original terminations were mostly justified.
However, Frank Dickson, principal analyst at Dickson Research, argued that a lot of the layoff reversals will occur in a variety of ways that will obscure the fact that they are restoring a terminated role.
“A lot of that 70% never shows up as a clean rehire even when the original cut was wrong,” he said, pointing out that some of the losses caused service to quietly get worse, and stay poor, some of the work was contracted out or offshored, some of the roles were reconstituted with a different position or title, and some was covered by the remaining staff absorbing the load. This,” he noted, “shows up later as burnout and attrition, not as a line item on this report. None of that gets counted in the 30%, and none of it is evidence the original call was sound.”
Melody Brue, principal analyst for Moor Insights & Strategy, added that the 70% scenario “could show that a substantial share of the AI-related workforce reductions is durable,” but, she stressed, “it shouldn’t be mistaken for endorsement of how those layoffs were made. What it doesn’t show is whether the organization captured the full economic value it expected. A lower headcount is not by itself evidence of a successful AI transformation.”
Valence Howden, advisory fellow at Info-Tech Research Group, questioned the methodology behind the calculation of Gartner’s 30% figure, but he agreed with the overall sentiment that layoffs attributed to AI have been excessive.
“I’m not sure we can substantiate those numbers, since it’s much more of a guesswork statement than anything else,” he said. “I do believe the current trend is going to lead to rehiring, especially as AI governance requirements ramp up and given AI’s lack of contextual semantic understanding. We know AI has not provided the value proposition that it has been sold as providing, and unless costs are controlled, it will be cheaper to use humans to perform some of the advanced work.”
Supporting dataDickson also raised questions about the Gartner report because it lacked comparative layoff statistics.
“Gartner doesn’t say what the reversal rate looks like for ordinary layoffs, the ones that have nothing to do with AI,” he said. “Suppose normal cuts get walked back at 10% to 15% in a typical five-year window, which is plausible given ordinary churn and business-cycle rehiring. A 30% rate specific to AI-driven layoffs would still run well above that, and that’s a damning number. Without that comparison, 30% is just a figure floating with no anchor.”
However, Dickson pointed to various datapoints supporting the position that AI layoffs have been excessive, noting that Forrester reported that 55% of businesses “already regret AI-driven cuts and are predicting half of those layoffs get quietly reversed.”
“Robert Half puts it at a third of hiring executives who eliminated roles for AI having already rehired. Ford, IBM, Booz Allen Hamilton, Alphabet and CSX have all walked back cuts or announced rehiring drives,” Dickson said. “Gartner’s 30% by 2029 sits comfortably inside that range.” Klarna has also walked back AI layoffs.
A ‘major indictment’He added that many AI layoffs amounted to a corporate version of a crash diet. “You cut fast, you look great on the next earnings call, and eighteen months later, the weight is back, plus interest, because nobody fixed why the cut was made in the first place.”
Gartner’s Paulman agreed, noting, “business and IT executives who use AI primarily as a tool for cost cutting risk making reductions that are too deep and too soon, affecting their ability to innovate their business model and compete in new markets as AI continues to mature.”
Mike Wilkes, enterprise CISO at Aikido Security, said that even if the 30% figure turns out to be accurate, it is a major indictment of the layoffs.
“If 30% of AI-driven layoffs must be reversed, that is an enormous error rate for a strategic workforce decision,” Wilkes said. “Imagine any other major capital decision where nearly one-third had to be unwound at a premium three years later. No CFO would call that a strong outcome.”
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The iPhone is now Apple’s ‘intelligent personal hub’
Twenty-five years ago, I sat near the front of the room while then-Apple CEO Steve Jobs rolled out Apple’s digital hub strategy, a vision in which the Mac would become the central manager of all manner of portable digital devices.
Now, a quarter of a century later, nearly all of those digital devices have become features on your iPhone, and the arrival of AI means the iPhone has become the intelligent personal hub, the central manager of, well, of you. Apple’s new CEO, John Ternus, went straight for the concept in his important opening remarks at Wednesday’s big iPhone launch, where nearly all the pre-event speculation came true.
The intelligent personal hub“As we look ahead, we see a future filled with enormous discovery and transformation,” Ternus said at the Surprise and Shine event. “AI makes entirely new kinds of experiences possible. An AI can become even more useful when it brings together your life with the apps, services, and products you use every day. And this means the product at the center of your experiences becomes even more essential — what I like to think of as an intelligent personal hub.”
(To be clear: He’s talking about the iPhone.)
Think about it: all those tasks you now do on your iPhone are tasks AI can help you with. Siri AI lets you work on files and folders using spoken commands, while contextual AI lets you sift through all the data once gathered by your iPhone to do things, make things, create networks, or even organize luncheon.
“It’s the intersection of broad new capability, and a deep understanding of your personal context that makes this idea so powerful,” Ternus explained.
AI’s brave new worldThat’s the context within which Apple will be introducing all its future products, a battle the company now feels confident marching into now that it appears to have resolved its historical challenges with AI. At the same time, the company also seems to be doing its best to lean into privacy — enabling life-changing AI transformation of daily lives while putting a brake on scary privacy attacks. This is going to be foundational to what happens next at Apple.
Of course, you’re not reading this to look too deeply into what Ternus said about the future of Apple; you’ll also want some insight into the slew of devices the company introduced at its event. That list includes the:
- iPhone Duo — the long-anticipated folding iPhone, which is finally here (or rather, will be here in October).
- iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max — the next important evolutions of what was once Apple’s highest-end iPhone range.
- AirPods 5 — now with even better tech, at the same price as before.
- Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4 — the latest iterations of the company’s popular wearables.
For some, the biggest surprise in these introductions was price. All of the accessories were kept at the same price as last year’s equivalents, while the new Pro iPhones came in at only $100 more for the entry-level model, rising to around $300 more at the more price-resistant highest end. An iPhone 18 Pro Max equipped with the max 2TB storage comes in at $2,499 compared to the $1,199 iPhone 18 Pro entry point.
When it came to price, though, all eyes were certainly on the iPhone Duo, and Apple has given everyone (except competitors) a pleasant surprise on that.
With a starting price of $1,999, the folding phone’s price hit the low end of expectations, and while that grows to an eye-watering $3,199 with 2TB of storage, it compares well with the market leader, Samsung. While the Galaxy Z Fold 8 begins at $1,899, in terms of features and design, Apple’s folding phone lines up with the Galaxy Z Fold 8 Ultra, which costs from $2,099.
Dig a little deeper and you’ll see that while the iPhone has IP68-rated dust and water resistance, the Samsung equivalent has only IP48. You can drop the Fold 8 into five feet of water for up to half an hour and it should be OK, but you can chuck your iPhone Duo in almost twenty feet of water, and it should survive. Though you probably shouldn’t test that unless you’re a hugely successful “influencer” already generating a small nation state of money through clicks. If that’s you, good for you. I’m only slightly envious.
A productivity powerhouse?What that suggests is that the iPhone is less likely to get damaged and is better engineered, though it’s also ever so slightly thicker. Apple’s device is powered by what the company modestly described as the most powerful mobile processor on the planet — which it is, particularly for the AI tasks all the new iPhones can handle. That matters, particularly for applied contextual AI deployed across daily lives.
It also matters because the combination turns Apple’s device into a mobile productivity powerhouse, one that I think will likely affect iPad sales more than anything else. Though this wouldn’t be the first time a new Apple release ended up eating its siblings.
The productive possibilities of Apple’s premium device will also be realized as app developers embrace both the form factor and Siri AI. Apple said during the keynote that more than 300,000 apps already work with Siri AI and more than 2.5 billion Siri requests are being made each day. That latter number will only grow now that Siri performance has been dramatically improved.
While this argument applies to all Apple’s new devices, the fact of the matter is that you now have an iPad-sized object you can carry in your pocket that is capable of doing some really powerful tasks by spoken command alone. That’s the iPhone Duo – a product of an unexplored territory at the crossroads between mobile computing, daily digital existence, and the opportunities of AI.
It’s not for everyone, yetI don’t expect the Duo will be for everyone; the vast majority of users won’t be spending $2,000 on a phone. But we know that the cost of technologies like this tends to decline, which suggests that in perhaps five years’ time, it will be possible to create equivalent devices for a much lower price. Right now, it’s for affluent Apple consumers, C-class executives, students, AI pros, medical professionals and others who might actually need this kind of performance and display space to get things done.
This, incidentally, is precisely the same group of people that first embraced the iPad when it appeared, turning that into the world’s best-selling tablet.
What might this mean for Apple?I traded a few messages with IDC analyst Francisco Jeronimo, who sees it like this: “Apple entered the foldable market and, in one keynote, set the price and the standard every rival will now be measured against.”
He also pointed out, the iPhone Duo is “…a direct test of whether Apple can use design, ecosystem integration and premium positioning to reshape a segment that has so far remained selective.”
He’s right, of course, but Ternus also just defined what that segment, and the industry, is driving for. I’s the same thing Apple was aiming at 25 years ago. “iPhone sits at the center of an amazing ecosystem of intelligent features and experiences that work seamlessly across the products you use every day,” the company said — an “intelligent personal hub.” And the Macs are all right, too.
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